WELCOME TO TYPHOON AND WEATHER IMAGERY. THIS BLOG CONTAINS REAL TIME WEATHER, TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES AND IMAGERY, AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST. CONTENTS OF DROP DOWN MENU CAN BE FOUND AFTER PHILIPPINE IMAGERY BELOW (SCROLL DOWNWARD). THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR VISITING THIS SITE. YOU ARE FREE TO MAKE ANY COMMENT(S) OR FEEDBACK(S) ABOUT THIS BLOG.

ACTIVE LOW OR TROPICAL CYCLONES

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HARVEY

KENNETH

FIFTEEN-W

LANGUAGE TRANSLATION

LAS PINAS CITY REALTIME DATA (CREDITS: MANILA OBSERVATORY)

PRESSURE TEMPERATURE RAINFALL WINDSPEED SOLAR RADIATION

PHILIPPINES HIMAWARI SATELLITE IMAGERY (10 MINUTES UPDATE) AND RAINFALL MAP (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI DAYTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI 30MINUTES WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI HOURLY FUNKTOP LOOP IMAGERY (RAINFALL) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI CLOUDTOP IMAGERY (THUNDERSTORMS COURTESY OF THAILAND METEOROLOGICAL DEPT.) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
BACK TO THERMAL IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)

REAL TIME HOURLY SURFACE WIND AND RAINRATE WITH VALUE

CREDIT: VENTUSKY

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DOPPLER RADARs (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

PHILIPPINES WEATHER FORECAST

PHILIPPINES WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST

5 DAYS METRO MANILA DATA FORECAST (based on GEFS Ensemble model)    
DATE AND TIME Rainfall (mm)   Temperature (°C)   Windspeed (km/hr)   Direction   MSLP (mb)    
8/19/2015 14:00 2.76   29   16.67   W   1005.7    
8/19/2015 17:00 2.4   27.7   15.99   W   1005.7    
8/19/2015 20:00 0.3   25.3   15.68   WSW   1006.3    
8/19/2015 23:00 0.01   24.9   15.99   WSW   1006.9    
8/20/2015 2:00 0.01   24.9   16.48   WSW   1005.9    
8/20/2015 5:00 0.01   24.5   16.98   SW   1004.8    
8/20/2015 8:00 0   26.9   18.21   WSW   1005.6    
8/20/2015 11:00 0   29.7   22.10   WSW   1005.1    
8/20/2015 14:00 1.66   29.6   27.29   WSW   1003.5    
8/20/2015 17:00 1.66   27.5   29.57   WSW   1003.1    
8/20/2015 20:00 0.84   24.9   25.37   SW   1004.7    
8/20/2015 23:00 0.42   24.8   21.11   SW   1005.8    
8/21/2015 2:00 0   24.6   24.94   SW   1003.6    
8/21/2015 5:00 0   24.5   25.25   SW   1003.4    
8/21/2015 8:00 0.59   27   23.09   SW   1005.8    
8/21/2015 11:00 2.03   29.6   24.82   SW   1006    
8/21/2015 14:00 2.46   29.8   28.27   WSW   1004.4    
8/21/2015 17:00 5.71   26   28.27   WSW   1004.6    
8/21/2015 20:00 7.04   24.6   28.15   SW   1007.5    
8/21/2015 23:00 6.19   24.4   24.45   SW   1009    
8/22/2015 2:00 5.04   24.2   23.15   SW   1007.2    
8/22/2015 5:00 2.8   23.8   22.47   SSW   1007    
8/22/2015 8:00 0   25.7   19.38   SSW   1009.5    
8/22/2015 11:00 2.63   27.3   19.51   SW   1009.7    
8/22/2015 14:00 1.66   27.4   21.92   SW   1007.5    
8/22/2015 17:00 3.19   25.8   20.31   SW   1007.5    
8/22/2015 20:00 1.18   24.2   18.15   S   1009.7    
8/22/2015 23:00 0.01   23.8   19.01   S   1010.5    
8/23/2015 2:00 1.04   23.5   20.31   SSW   1008.4    
8/23/2015 5:00 0.99   23.4   20.37   SSW   1008.4    
8/23/2015 8:00 1.45   24.6   21.24   SSW   1010.4    
8/23/2015 11:00 2.93   26.3   23.34   SW   1010.1    
8/23/2015 14:00 4.11   25.5   26.73   SW   1007.5    
8/23/2015 17:00 3.77   24.2   25.62   SW   1007.3    
8/23/2015 20:00 6.82   23.8   24.51   SW   1009.4    
8/23/2015 23:00 7.5   23.6   24.94   SSW   1009.6    
8/24/2015 2:00 5.43   23.3   25.99   SSW   1007.1    
8/24/2015 5:00 4.88   23.2   26.79   SSW   1007    
8/24/2015 8:00 3.09   23.9   26.48   SSW   1008.5    
8/24/2015 11:00 2.78   25.3   28.46   SSW   1007.9    
8/24/2015 14:00 2.64   25.6   29.01   SSW   1006.3    
                       
AVERAGE 2.3910   25.58   22.84   SW   1006.92    
DRIZZLE-LIGHT                    
LIGHT-MODERATE                    
MODERATE-HEAVY                    
HEAVY-VERY HEAVY                    
VERY HEAVY-INTENSE                    
INTENSE-TORRENTIAL                    
                       
ENVIROMENTAL FACTORS    
          DATA       DESCRIPTIONS
850mb VORTICITY(×10-6/s)   25   MODERATE  
AVER. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (in kt)   30   STRONG  
AVER. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (in kt)   15   MODERATE ASCENDING  
AVER. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (in kt)   15   LIGHT STABLE
AVER. TROPICAL PREC. WATER (MM)   70   VERY MOIST        
AVER. COLDER THAN -40°C   85   VERY DEEP
AVER. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb)   1006.00   LOW
AVER. WEEKLY SST INDEX ( EASTERN EQUATORAL)   0.008   NEUTRAL
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION   0.315   VERY WEAK WEST HEM. AFRICA
                       

AUGUST 20, 2017 7PM (GOOD FOR 12HRS)

SYNOPSIS: MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE COUNTRY EMBEDDED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION #IsangPH

ANALYSIS AND FORECAST

Extreme northern will have stormy weather while, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Western Mindanao expected to have cloudy skies with scattered to occassional thunderstorms becoming moderate to at times heavy rains over Western section. Gale force wind is expected over Extreme Northern Luzon becoming 25-35km/hr over Luzon and Visayas while 15km/hr over Mindanao coming from West-WSW. Coastal waters will be rough over Northern and Western section of the country and dangerous to all type of seacraft, while moderate over Mindanao and dangerous to small type of seacraft.

Sea surface temperature over Eastern Equatorial Pacific remains neutral, as MJO amplitude remains very weak at Indian ocean. Suppressed convection remains over the country.

FORECAST MODELS/TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

As of 0600Z,
Newly develop tropical cyclone code 15W develop of east of Extreme Northern Luzon which is embedded to monsoon trough.
Tropical Depression Fifteen-W (#IsangPH) was spotted based on latest dvorak imagery at 20.5N, 127.98E (650km East of Batanes grp.), with maximum (1min-aver.) windspeed of 30kt(56km/hr) and gust of 40kt (74km/hr). Moving more on a NW to WNW track at speed of 7kt.
Low level environment remains excellent with above 31 celsius SST and 125-200KJ/cm^2 HIGH OHC over its track causing plenty of tropical moisture availability. Upper level environment on the other hand is also excellent with 5-10kt low VWS, robust equatorward outflow and fair poleward outflow with fair upper level divergence, which expected to provide well-ventilation along the LLCC. Although forecast max speed of 50kt by 48hrs before landfall, the said excellent environmental condition allow the system to atleast reach a severe TS (60kt) or even a minimal typhoon (65kt) if RI happens during the said period (which is likely).
TD 15W currently under the steering influence of deep-layered Ridge over NE. The said remains a primary steering flow causing the system move on general WNW track througout the forecast period.
The said excellent low level and upper level environment allow TD 15W intensified further as it moves towards Luzon strait or to Southern portion of Taiwan. Most models are agreeable on this scenario.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVERE ALERT: BATANES GROUP AND SOUTHERN TAIWAN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALERT: NORTHERN CAGAYAN, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, NORTHERN TAIWAN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING: REST OF NORTHERN LUZON

GFS - YES
CMC - YES
NAVGEM - YES
ECMWF - YES
JMA - YES
HKO (72HRS) - YES
RJTD (48HRS) - YES
NOGAPS - YES
NCMRWF - YES
ICON - YES BOM - YES BRA - YES

BELOW ARE 10 DAY FORECAST AND SELECTED PHILIPPINE CITIES 3 DAY RAINFALL FORECAST



METRO MANILA HIMAWARI THERMAL IR IMAGERY

NEW PAGASA RADAR SITE (CLICK HERE) http://meteopilipinas.gov.ph/map.php




10MIN CLOUDTOP IMAGERY (FOR THUNDERSTORM CLOUD)

ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY



10 DAYS RAINFALL FORECAST


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PHILIPPINE CHART AND REALTIME WIND


SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AND SURFACE WIND

7 DAYS GFS WIND FORECAST


12HRS

24HRS

36HRS

48HRS

60HRS

72HRS

84HRS

96HRS

108HRS

120HRS

132HRS

144HRS

156HRS

168HRS

180HRS

7 DAYS GFS WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST


12HRS

24HRS

36HRS

48HRS

60HRS

72HRS

84HRS

96HRS

108HRS

120HRS

132HRS

144HRS

156HRS

168HRS

180HRS

RELATIVE VORTICITY (UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS)

Vorticity is a measure of curvature in atmospheric flow. A positive value indicates counter clockwise motion in the northern hemisphere and lockwise motion in the southern hemisphere. A positive vorticity environment is conducive to storm development.


WESTERN PACIFIC ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER




DISCLAIMER: These are based on forecast models and realtime charts and imageries and not as an official update. Please don't use this as an official forecast unless official agencies issued warnings or updates. All informations and updates are supported by different data gathered from different agencies which well-analyzed by the author. All imageries are real time and only forecast is subject to changes by author.

CREDITS: weather-forecast.com, Naval Research Laboratory, NOAA, WEATHER ONLINE, PAGASA-DOST, CNN WEATHER, CIMSS

Layout and Discussions Prepared by: Jermaine Christopher Gaines (© 2016 All rights reserved)

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TWO FRAME RAINRATE IMAGERY


DMSP SSM/IS RAINRATE

AMSU RAINRATE

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN WESTERN PACIFIC CENTRALPACIFIC
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH ATLANTIC
EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH ATLANTIC
VORTICITY Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C 850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C)MSLP (hPa)

HIMAWARI WESTERN PACIFIC IR TEMPERATURE IMAGERY

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