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ACTIVE LOW OR TROPICAL CYCLONES

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LANGUAGE TRANSLATION

LAS PINAS CITY REALTIME DATA (CREDITS: MANILA OBSERVATORY)

PRESSURE TEMPERATURE RAINFALL WINDSPEED SOLAR RADIATION

PHILIPPINES HIMAWARI SATELLITE IMAGERY (10 MINUTES UPDATE) AND RAINFALL MAP (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI DAYTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI 30MINUTES WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI HOURLY FUNKTOP LOOP IMAGERY (RAINFALL) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI CLOUDTOP IMAGERY (THUNDERSTORMS COURTESY OF THAILAND METEOROLOGICAL DEPT.) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
BACK TO THERMAL IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)

REAL TIME 3 HOURS UPDATED SURFACE WIND AND 3HRS RAIN. CLICK EARTH TO CHANGE VIEW. CLICK MAP TO KNOW VALUE/DATA
CREDIT: EARTH.NULLSCHOOL.NET

Error: Embedded data could not be displayed.

DOPPLER RADARs (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

PHILIPPINE WEATHER FORECAST

PHILIPPINE WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST

METRO MANILA 
RAINFALL FORECAST (mm)   TEMPERATURE FORECAST (°C)   WINDSPEED FORECAST (km/hr)   MSLP FORECAST (mb)
Date [TIME] Minimum Mean Maximum   Minimum Mean Maximum   Minimum Mean Maximum   Minimum Mean Maximum
04.12.2016 18 0 0 0.1   24.6 24.9 25.2   7.92 8.28 9   1011.7 1012.2 1012.6
05.12.2016 00 0 0 0.1   23.8 24 24.2   6.12 6.84 7.2   1011.5 1012.1 1012.6
05.12.2016 06 0 0.1 0.1   26.1 26.3 26.5   10.44 11.52 12.6   1012.2 1012.7 1013.3
05.12.2016 12 0 0 0   30.5 31.3 31.8   14.04 15.12 16.56   1009.5 1010.2 1010.6
05.12.2016 18 0 0 0   25.1 25.2 25.4   9.36 9.72 10.44   1012.2 1012.8 1013.3
06.12.2016 00 0 0 0.1   23.9 24.1 24.4   7.2 7.92 9   1012.1 1012.5 1013.1
06.12.2016 06 0 0 0.2   26 26.3 26.5   12.6 14.04 15.12   1012.5 1013 1013.5
06.12.2016 12 0 0 0.4   28.6 30.7 31.2   18.72 19.8 20.88   1008.8 1009.7 1010.5
06.12.2016 18 0 0 0.2   25 25.2 25.4   11.16 12.24 14.04   1011.4 1012.1 1012.8
07.12.2016 00 0 0.1 1.2   24 24.4 24.9   8.64 10.44 12.24   1009.6 1010.4 1011
07.12.2016 06 0 0.4 1.7   25 25.9 26.6   10.08 12.96 15.84   1011.1 1011.9 1012.6
07.12.2016 12 0 0.2 1.2   27.3 29.7 31   12.6 15.48 17.28   1007.8 1008.5 1009.1
07.12.2016 18 0 0.1 0.4   24.4 25.1 25.6   7.92 9.36 11.52   1009.9 1010.4 1011.1
08.12.2016 00 0 0 0.4   23.3 23.9 24.3   6.84 7.92 8.64   1007.5 1008.4 1009
08.12.2016 06 0 0.3 1.4   25.4 26.1 26.5   8.64 10.44 11.88   1009 1009.9 1010.4
08.12.2016 12 0 0.4 1   29.9 31.5 32.4   8.64 12.24 14.76   1005.8 1006.5 1006.9
08.12.2016 18 0 0.1 1.1   24.8 25.3 25.5   6.12 7.92 9   1008.5 1009.1 1009.8
09.12.2016 00 0 0 0.4   23.1 23.4 23.7   5.4 5.76 6.84   1007.1 1007.7 1008.3
09.12.2016 06 0.1 0.9 1.9   25.8 26.1 26.3   5.4 7.2 8.64   1008.8 1009.7 1010.6
09.12.2016 12 0.5 3.4 9.3   30.9 31.9 33.9   3.24 7.92 13.32   1005.6 1006.4 1007
09.12.2016 18 0 0.6 2.1   24.1 24.8 25.3   3.6 6.84 9.36   1008.4 1009.5 1010.4
AVERAGE 0.0286 0.3143 1.1095   25.79 26.48 26.98   8.79 10.47 12.10   1009.57 1010.27 1010.88
LIGHT/DRIZZLE                        
MODERATE                        
HEAVY                        
VERY HEAVY                        
INTENSE                        
TORRENTIAL                        

DECEMBER 4, 2016 4PM (GOOD FOR 12HRS)

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE OF HIGH OVER LUZON, BROAD NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER VISAYAS AND MINDANAO

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION

850mb VORTICITY(×10-6/s): +15 over Visayas and Mindanao (LIGHT).

VERTICAL WINDSHEAR(in kt): 15-40 SSW, LIGHT-MODERATE (INCREASING for the past 24hrs).

LOW LEVEL INFLOW (CONVERGENCE) VS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW (DIVERGENCE): 5-10kt LOW level inflow (ascending/convection) over Visayas and Mindanao with 5kt UPPER level inflow over Luzon (descending/non-convection), and 5-20kt UPPER level outflow over Visayas and Mindanao (pressure decreases) with 5kt LOW level outflow over Luzon (pressure increases)

TROPICAL MOISTURE % per -40°C: 50-90 over Visayas and Mindanao, moist-very moist

AVERAGE WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION (SURFACE): 10-15kt (ENE) Luzon, 5-10kt (ENE-E) over Visayas and 5-10kt (ENE-CHANGEABLE) over Mindanao

AVERAGE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (SURFACE IN MB): 1009mb-1015mb

AVERAGE WEEKLY SST INDEX (EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC): -0.236°C (FALLING, -0.06)

MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION AMPLITUDE: +0.456 [(NON MJO) PHASE 1 WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND AFRICA going up by 0.123]

ANALYSIS AND FORECAST

1. Near-Equatorial trough affects Visayas and Mindanao while, weakening Ridge of High dominates Luzon
2. Visayas and Mindanao is expected to have generally cloudy with some scattered rainshower and/or thunderstorms, while Luzon is expected to be generally fair with some isolated rainshower mostly over Eastern part and over mountaneous part.
3. Generally, winds will be moderate over Northern Luzon while winds will be light over Visayas and Mindanao.

FORECAST MODELS

As of 0000Z, for the next 5 days, no tropical disturbance nor tropical cyclone expected to develop over Western Pacific.

BELOW ARE PHILIPPINE DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION, 10 DAY FORECAST AND SELECTED PHILIPPINE CITIES 3 DAY RAINFALL FORECAST



METRO MANILA STATION
BAGUIO STATION
APARRI STATION
SUBIC
TAGAYTAY
BALER STATION
VIRAC STATION
CEBU STATION
HINATUAN STATION
SOUTH COTABATO





10MIN CLOUDTOP IMAGERY (FOR THUNDERSTORM CLOUD)

ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY



10 DAYS RAINFALL FORECAST


12HRS

24HRS

36HRS

48HRS

60HRS

72HRS

84HRS

96HRS

108HRS

120HRS

132HRS

144HRS

156HRS

168HRS

180HRS

192HRS

204HRS

216HRS

228HRS

240HRS

PHILIPPINE CHART AND REALTIME WIND


SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AND SURFACE WIND

10 DAYS WIND FORECAST


12HRS

24HRS

36HRS

48HRS

60HRS

72HRS

84HRS

96HRS

108HRS

120HRS

132HRS

144HRS

156HRS

168HRS

180HRS

192HRS

204HRS

216HRS

228HRS

240HRS

RELATIVE VORTICITY (UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS)

Vorticity is a measure of curvature in atmospheric flow. A positive value indicates counter clockwise motion in the northern hemisphere and lockwise motion in the southern hemisphere. A positive vorticity environment is conducive to storm development.


WESTERN PACIFIC ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER




DISCLAIMER: These are based on forecast models and realtime charts and imageries and not as an official update. Please don't use this as an official forecast unless official agencies issued warnings or updates. All informations and updates are supported by different data gathered from different agencies which well-analyzed by the author. All imageries are real time and only forecast is subject to changes by author.

CREDITS: weather-forecast.com, Naval Research Laboratory, NOAA, WEATHER ONLINE, PAGASA-DOST, CNN WEATHER, CIMSS

Layout and Discussions Prepared by: Jermaine Christopher Gaines (© 2016 All rights reserved)

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NORTH INDIAN OCEAN WESTERN PACIFIC CENTRALPACIFIC
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH ATLANTIC
EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH ATLANTIC
VORTICITY Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C 850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C)MSLP (hPa)

HIMAWARI WESTERN PACIFIC IR TEMPERATURE IMAGERY

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